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V-Lab

ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

72.85%

decreased by 1.44%

1 Week

72.43%

decreased by 1.86%

1 Month

70.94%

decreased by 3.35%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 11, 2010 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 32 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 32 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

15.2324
6.69***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1062
22.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9787
280.35***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.8579
5.52***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

32 days