V-Lab
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
72.85%
decreased by 1.44%
1 Week
72.43%
decreased by 1.86%
1 Month
70.94%
decreased by 3.35%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 11, 2010 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 32 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 32 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.2324 | 6.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1062 | 22.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9787 | 280.35*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.8579 | 5.52*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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