V-Lab
RHB Bank Bhd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
13.28%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Week
13.42%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Month
13.76%
decreased by 0.38%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2263 | 4.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1205 | 10.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8005 | 45.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0402 | 0.89 |
| γ2 | -0.0031 | -0.05 |
| γ3 | -0.1469 | -4.50*** |
| γ4 | 0.1927 | 5.82*** |
| γ5 | -0.1367 | -3.86*** |
| γ6 | 0.1064 | 2.69*** |
| γ7 | -0.0746 | -1.73* |
| γ8 | 0.0049 | 0.11 |
| γ9 | 0.0394 | 1.20 |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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