V-Lab
Red Sea Housing Services Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
31.29%
increased by 0.41%
1 Week
32.30%
increased by 1.42%
1 Month
35.01%
increased by 4.13%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 20, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7932 | 5.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1146 | 6.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8323 | 38.18*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0429 | 0.83 |
| γ2 | -0.0073 | -0.08 |
| γ3 | -0.1010 | -1.49 |
| γ4 | 0.1345 | 2.41** |
| γ5 | -0.0986 | -1.87* |
| γ6 | 0.0305 | 0.78 |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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