Red Sea Housing Services Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
39.44%
decreased by 2.46%
1 Week
39.51%
decreased by 2.39%
1 Month
39.71%
decreased by 2.19%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Jul 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8007 | 5.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1163 | 6.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8302 | 37.74*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0429 | 0.82 |
| γ2 | -0.0066 | -0.08 |
| γ3 | -0.1019 | -1.48 |
| γ4 | 0.1341 | 2.37** |
| γ5 | -0.0973 | -1.83* |
| γ6 | 0.0294 | 0.75 |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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