V-Lab
Prescient Therapeutics Limited Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
113.86%
decreased by 11.71%
1 Week
107.14%
decreased by 18.43%
1 Month
93.09%
decreased by 32.48%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 28, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6737 | 5.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1100 | 5.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7633 | 19.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.1664 | 1.71* |
| γ2 | -0.2568 | -1.55 |
| γ3 | 0.2425 | 2.21** |
| γ4 | -0.2940 | -4.09*** |
| γ5 | 0.1674 | 2.57** |
| γ6 | -0.0012 | -0.02 |
| γ7 | -0.0401 | -0.55 |
| γ8 | 0.0270 | 0.57 |
Persistence:
0.873
Half-life:
5 days
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