V-Lab
Powerhouse Energy Group PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
43.85%
decreased by 1.50%
1 Week
50.52%
increased by 5.17%
1 Month
57.36%
increased by 12.01%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 16, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4931 | 3.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2425 | 4.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5278 | 8.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.1585 | 0.50 |
| γ2 | -0.2729 | -0.63 |
| γ3 | 0.2762 | 1.26 |
| γ4 | -0.2052 | -1.07 |
| γ5 | 0.1379 | 0.83 |
| γ6 | -0.3214 | -1.87* |
| γ7 | 0.3776 | 2.60*** |
Persistence:
0.770
Half-life:
3 days
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