V-Lab
Millennium Group Corp Asia GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
46.14%
decreased by 4.20%
1 Week
47.22%
decreased by 3.12%
1 Month
49.32%
decreased by 1.02%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 26, 2023 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.79 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 10.4053 | 2.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0790 | 4.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8855 | 18.65*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7864 | 3.56*** |
Persistence:
0.886
Half-life:
6 days
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