V-Lab
Mark Dynamics Indo Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
51.64%
decreased by 4.38%
1 Week
51.12%
decreased by 4.90%
1 Month
49.46%
decreased by 6.56%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 12, 2017 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8191 | 3.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1478 | 5.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8119 | 21.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.4494 | 2.84*** |
| γ2 | -0.6735 | -3.09*** |
| γ3 | 0.2876 | 3.38*** |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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