V-Lab
Mark Dynamics Indo GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
62.37%
decreased by 5.25%
1 Week
62.68%
decreased by 4.94%
1 Month
63.87%
decreased by 3.75%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 12, 2017 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 408 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 60.1060 | 8.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0998 | 71.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9983 | 5,172.55*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.8281 | 146.94*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
408 days
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