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V-Lab

Mark Dynamics Indo GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

62.37%

decreased by 5.25%

1 Week

62.68%

decreased by 4.94%

1 Month

63.87%

decreased by 3.75%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

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graph of Mark Dynamics Indo GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 12, 2017 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 408 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

60.1060
8.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0998
71.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9983
5,172.55***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.8281
146.94***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

408 days