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V-Lab

CarMax Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

45.44%

decreased by 1.71%

1 Week

51.52%

increased by 4.37%

1 Month

54.48%

increased by 7.33%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CarMax Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 4, 1997 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7961
8.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2480
4.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2915
3.17***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.1108
-1.71*
γ20.0358
0.36
γ30.0319
0.36
γ40.2829
3.14***
γ5-0.5157
-5.59***
γ60.4306
3.73***
γ7-0.1799
-1.18
γ80.0464
0.35
γ9-0.0154
-0.15
γ10-0.0332
-0.38

Persistence:

0.539

Half-life:

1 days