V-Lab
CarMax Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
45.44%
decreased by 1.71%
1 Week
51.52%
increased by 4.37%
1 Month
54.48%
increased by 7.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 4, 1997 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7961 | 8.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2480 | 4.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2915 | 3.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1108 | -1.71* |
| γ2 | 0.0358 | 0.36 |
| γ3 | 0.0319 | 0.36 |
| γ4 | 0.2829 | 3.14*** |
| γ5 | -0.5157 | -5.59*** |
| γ6 | 0.4306 | 3.73*** |
| γ7 | -0.1799 | -1.18 |
| γ8 | 0.0464 | 0.35 |
| γ9 | -0.0154 | -0.15 |
| γ10 | -0.0332 | -0.38 |
Persistence:
0.539
Half-life:
1 days
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