V-Lab
CarMax Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
48.38%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
48.49%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Month
48.89%
decreased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 4, 1997 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 105 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 169% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0815 | 10.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0174 | 6.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9614 | 416.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0293 | 5.25*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
105 days
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