V-Lab
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
73.76%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Week
73.78%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Month
73.88%
decreased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 1992 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 55 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7562 | 7.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0670 | 9.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9205 | 115.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0005 | -2.60*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
Other Hovnanian Enterprises Inc Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equities