V-Lab
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
70.41%
increased by 0.13%
1 Week
70.38%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
70.24%
decreased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 1992 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 53% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1519 | 17.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0482 | 19.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9308 | 531.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0255 | 5.18*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
84 days
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