V-Lab
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
73.30%
increased by 0.67%
1 Week
73.18%
increased by 0.55%
1 Month
72.71%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 1992 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 96 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 16.3694 | 5.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0549 | 40.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9928 | 678.59*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.5597 | 9.61*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
96 days
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