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V-Lab

Hovnanian Enterprises Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

73.30%

increased by 0.67%

1 Week

73.18%

increased by 0.55%

1 Month

72.71%

increased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 14, 1992 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 96 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

16.3694
5.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0549
40.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9928
678.59***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.5597
9.61***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

96 days