V-Lab
GraniteShares HIPS US High Income ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
8.49%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
9.02%
increased by 0.14%
1 Month
10.51%
increased by 1.63%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2015 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1388 | 5.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1455 | 4.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8157 | 23.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0041 | 1.80* |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
18 days
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