V-Lab
Epsilon Energy Ltd. Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
48.12%
decreased by 4.70%
1 Week
49.40%
decreased by 3.42%
1 Month
50.37%
decreased by 2.45%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 12, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5689 | 3.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1944 | 4.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4666 | 6.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.8206 | -1.46 |
| γ2 | 1.2311 | 1.68* |
| γ3 | -0.8198 | -2.94*** |
| γ4 | 0.7376 | 3.33*** |
| γ5 | -0.7010 | -3.91*** |
| γ6 | 0.8583 | 4.61*** |
| γ7 | -0.7233 | -4.85*** |
Persistence:
0.661
Half-life:
2 days
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