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V-Lab

African Rainbow Minerals Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

49.16%

decreased by 0.81%

1 Week

49.56%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Month

50.82%

increased by 0.85%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of African Rainbow Minerals Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 24, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7982
5.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0540
5.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9116
49.51***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-0.1574
-1.85*
γ20.1832
1.50
γ30.1350
1.80*
γ4-0.3616
-4.66***
γ50.3343
4.17***
γ6-0.2239
-3.25***
γ70.1241
2.46**

Persistence:

0.966

Half-life:

20 days