African Rainbow Minerals Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
49.16%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Week
49.56%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Month
50.82%
increased by 0.85%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 24, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7982 | 5.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0540 | 5.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9116 | 49.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.1574 | -1.85* |
| γ2 | 0.1832 | 1.50 |
| γ3 | 0.1350 | 1.80* |
| γ4 | -0.3616 | -4.66*** |
| γ5 | 0.3343 | 4.17*** |
| γ6 | -0.2239 | -3.25*** |
| γ7 | 0.1241 | 2.46** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
Other African Rainbow Minerals Ltd Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities