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V-Lab

African Rainbow Minerals Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

54.69%

decreased by 1.30%

1 Week

54.74%

decreased by 1.25%

1 Month

54.91%

decreased by 1.08%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of African Rainbow Minerals Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 24, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 78 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.93 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

12.9932
5.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0485
28.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9912
651.65***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.9311
8.65***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

78 days