African Rainbow Minerals Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
51.37%
decreased by 1.05%
1 Week
51.58%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Month
52.38%
decreased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 24, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 174 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 116% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0841 | 9.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0326 | 11.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9446 | 528.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0377 | 6.19*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
174 days
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