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V-Lab

African Rainbow Minerals Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

51.37%

decreased by 1.05%

1 Week

51.58%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Month

52.38%

decreased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of African Rainbow Minerals Ltd GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 24, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 174 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 116% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0841
9.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0326
11.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9446
528.01***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0377
6.19***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

174 days