Dor Alon Energy In Israel Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
23.02%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Week
23.09%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Month
23.31%
decreased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 5, 2005 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0068 | 5.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0407 | 4.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9295 | 55.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0494 | -2.49** |
| γ2 | 0.0782 | 2.65*** |
| γ3 | -0.0375 | -1.89* |
| γ4 | 0.0112 | 0.86 |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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