V-Lab
Dor Alon Energy In Israel Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
19.25%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
19.54%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
20.48%
increased by 1.20%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 5, 2005 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0089 | 5.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0409 | 4.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9290 | 55.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0492 | -2.52** |
| γ2 | 0.0783 | 2.69*** |
| γ3 | -0.0388 | -1.99** |
| γ4 | 0.0128 | 0.99 |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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