V-Lab
Chandni Machines Private Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
50.18%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Week
56.89%
increased by 5.53%
1 Month
63.67%
increased by 12.31%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 2019 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5487 | 6.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2706 | 6.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4923 | 6.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 1.3262 | 6.78*** |
| γ2 | -1.8854 | -6.72*** |
| γ3 | 0.6793 | 4.35*** |
| γ4 | -0.1323 | -1.18 |
Persistence:
0.763
Half-life:
3 days
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