V-Lab
Allurion Technologies Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
134.15%
increased by 38.18%
1 Week
138.34%
increased by 42.37%
1 Month
153.25%
increased by 57.28%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2021 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~93 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6181 | 1.90* |
| αARCH | 0.2691 | 4.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7235 | 14.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 11.1630 | 1.02 |
| γ2 | -11.7332 | -0.79 |
| γ3 | -9.6244 | -0.72 |
| γ4 | 49.2247 | 1.75* |
| γ5 | -72.0818 | -1.92* |
| γ6 | 42.3271 | 1.46 |
| γ7 | -11.6381 | -0.77 |
| γ8 | -3.2711 | -0.38 |
| γ9 | 18.2396 | 2.34** |
| γ10 | -30.5944 | -3.00*** |
0.993
Persistence93d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6181 | 1.90* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2691 | 4.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7235 | 14.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 11.1630 | 1.02 |
| γ2 | -11.7332 | -0.79 |
| γ3 | -9.6244 | -0.72 |
| γ4 | 49.2247 | 1.75* |
| γ5 | -72.0818 | -1.92* |
| γ6 | 42.3271 | 1.46 |
| γ7 | -11.6381 | -0.77 |
| γ8 | -3.2711 | -0.38 |
| γ9 | 18.2396 | 2.34** |
| γ10 | -30.5944 | -3.00*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
93 days
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