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V-Lab
V-Lab

Allurion Technologies Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

124.72%

decreased by 14.46%

1 Week

130.62%

decreased by 8.56%

1 Month

151.93%

increased by 12.75%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 09:25 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Allurion Technologies Inc SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 5, 2021 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 11950 trading days (~47.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~11950 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.9464
0.53
αARCH0.2742
0.40
βGARCH0.7258
1.07
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-3.5856
-0.16
γ26.6823
0.26
γ3-15.5794
-1.35
γ453.0020
1.97**
γ5-74.3597
-1.94*
γ643.5181
1.41
γ7-12.1398
-0.66
γ8-3.3218
-0.30
γ918.6859
2.25**
γ10-31.6705
-2.66***

1.000

Persistence

11950d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.9464
0.53
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2742
0.40
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7258
1.07
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-3.5856
-0.16
γ26.6823
0.26
γ3-15.5794
-1.35
γ453.0020
1.97**
γ5-74.3597
-1.94*
γ643.5181
1.41
γ7-12.1398
-0.66
γ8-3.3218
-0.30
γ918.6859
2.25**
γ10-31.6705
-2.66***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

11950 days