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V-Lab

State Street Bridgewater All Weather ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

11.28%

decreased by 1.89%

1 Week

11.67%

decreased by 1.50%

1 Month

12.04%

decreased by 1.13%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of State Street Bridgewater All Weather ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 6, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.68 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5894
5.31***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1407
2.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7218
26.90***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.6838
1.10

Persistence:

0.722

Half-life:

2 days