Adagio Medical Holdings Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
191.65%
1 Week
403.46%
1 Month
17,172.97%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2021 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1351 trading days (~5.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.3505 | 1.82* |
| βGARCH | 0.6720 | 7.21*** |
| γleverage | -0.0461 | -0.19 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.90 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 1.0000 | 1.71* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.999
Persistence1351d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3505 | 1.82* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6720 | 7.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0461 | -0.19 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.90 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 1.71* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1351 days
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