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V-Lab

Adagio Medical Holdings Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

102.58%

decreased by 26.34%

1 Week

211.08%

increased by 82.16%

1 Month

8,690.32%

increased by 8,561.40%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Adagio Medical Holdings Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 26, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1361 trading days (~5.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 40% more than negative returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4019
15.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6555
33.02***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1158
-3.23***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.69
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

1.0000
0.77
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1361 days