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V-Lab

Adagio Medical Holdings Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

59.07%

decreased by 8.34%

1 Week

124.99%

increased by 57.58%

1 Month

5,003.33%

increased by 4,935.92%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

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graph of Adagio Medical Holdings Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 26, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1171 trading days (~4.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 50% more than negative returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4113
15.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6567
31.66***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1373
-3.99***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

8.4890
0.68
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

1.0000
0.78
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1171 days