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Adagio Medical Holdings Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

191.65%

decreased by 11.20%

1 Week

403.46%

increased by 200.61%

1 Month

17,172.97%

increased by 16,970.12%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Adagio Medical Holdings Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 26, 2021 to Oct 23, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1351 trading days (~5.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~1351 days
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow26
αARCH0.3505
1.82*
βGARCH0.6720
7.21***
γleverage-0.0461
-0.19
λ₁tau intercept10.0000
0.90
λ₂forecast adj.1.0000
1.71*
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.999

Persistence

1351d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3505
1.82*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6720
7.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0461
-0.19
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.90
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

1.0000
1.71*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1351 days