Adagio Medical Holdings Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
59.07%
1 Week
124.99%
1 Month
5,003.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1171 trading days (~4.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 50% more than negative returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4113 | 15.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6567 | 31.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1373 | -3.99*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 8.4890 | 0.68 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 0.78 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1171 days
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