V-Lab
Isewan Terminal Service Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
23.77%
increased by 4.22%
1 Week
22.52%
increased by 2.97%
1 Month
19.75%
increased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 1, 1993 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4267 | 2.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1339 | 5.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7524 | 18.85*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0821 | 0.77 |
| γ2 | -0.1449 | -1.01 |
| γ3 | 0.0506 | 0.65 |
| γ4 | 0.0494 | 0.79 |
| γ5 | -0.0470 | -0.84 |
| γ6 | -0.0625 | -0.86 |
| γ7 | 0.2078 | 2.36** |
| γ8 | -0.2284 | -2.70*** |
| γ9 | 0.1405 | 2.16** |
| γ10 | -0.0606 | -1.40 |
Persistence:
0.886
Half-life:
6 days
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