V-Lab
Inventiva SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
68.23%
decreased by 4.07%
1 Week
70.42%
decreased by 1.88%
1 Month
75.53%
increased by 3.23%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8553 | 1.81* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1370 | 2.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7848 | 12.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -1.2342 | -0.67 |
| γ2 | 3.2179 | 1.27 |
| γ3 | -3.9492 | -2.72*** |
| γ4 | 3.2795 | 2.52** |
| γ5 | -1.9853 | -1.64 |
| γ6 | 0.7946 | 0.83 |
Persistence:
0.922
Half-life:
9 days
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