V-Lab
Guangdong Dcenti Auto-Parts Stock Ltd Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
38.43%
decreased by 1.58%
1 Week
41.42%
increased by 1.41%
1 Month
47.40%
increased by 7.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 06:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 20, 2017 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3626 | 6.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.1527 | 6.43*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7505 | 19.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0594 | 2.43** |
| γ2 | -0.0715 | -2.31** |
0.903
Persistence7d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3626 | 6.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1527 | 6.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7505 | 19.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0594 | 2.43** |
| γ2 | -0.0715 | -2.31** |
Persistence:
0.903
Half-life:
7 days
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