V-Lab
Phihong Technology Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
43.96%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Week
44.20%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Month
44.58%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:41 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 21, 2001 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5384 | 9.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1284 | 7.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7134 | 17.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0408 | 1.91* |
| γ2 | -0.0739 | -2.22** |
| γ3 | 0.0675 | 3.31*** |
| γ4 | -0.0451 | -3.08*** |
| γ5 | 0.0094 | 0.92 |
Persistence:
0.842
Half-life:
4 days
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