V-Lab
Zhihu Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
70.45%
decreased by 18.54%
1 Week
63.09%
decreased by 25.90%
1 Month
53.64%
decreased by 35.35%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2022 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6597 | 5.90*** |
| αARCH | 0.2232 | 2.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5367 | 4.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0638 | 3.95*** |
0.760
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6597 | 5.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2232 | 2.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5367 | 4.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0638 | 3.95*** |
Persistence:
0.760
Half-life:
3 days
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