Sheetal Universal Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 8th, 2026
1 Day
10,508.89
increased by 7,816.91
1 Week
4,312.35
increased by 1,620.37
1 Month
3,806.87
increased by 1,114.89
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 2023 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8866 | 7.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2223 | 3.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4567 | 2.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -5.3339 | -6.74*** |
| γ2 | 8.2437 | 6.35*** |
| γ3 | -5.8758 | -3.91*** |
Persistence:
0.679
Half-life:
2 days
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