Raoom Trading Company Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Sunday, July 12th, 2026
1 Day
4,487.52
decreased by 1,463.22
1 Week
4,439.79
decreased by 1,510.95
1 Month
5,213.25
decreased by 737.49
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 22, 2022 to Jul 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2103 | 2.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3268 | 5.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5065 | 5.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -3.3221 | -0.44 |
| γ2 | -2.3697 | -0.22 |
| γ3 | 6.7742 | 0.83 |
| γ4 | -16.0048 | -1.73* |
| γ5 | 41.5351 | 4.99*** |
| γ6 | -54.6116 | -7.22*** |
| γ7 | 46.3695 | 6.48*** |
| γ8 | -21.7394 | -3.40*** |
| γ9 | 0.4560 | 0.07 |
| γ10 | 6.2123 | 0.81 |
Persistence:
0.833
Half-life:
4 days
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