Cairo Pharmaceuticals & Chemical Industries Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Sunday, July 12th, 2026
1 Day
4,222.40
increased by 703.85
1 Week
4,044.25
increased by 525.70
1 Month
3,895.50
increased by 376.95
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 06:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 24, 1998 to Jul 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9145 | 1.56 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0931 | 6.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8772 | 53.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4603 | -0.96 |
| γ2 | 0.7965 | 1.22 |
| γ3 | -0.6035 | -1.97** |
| γ4 | 0.2315 | 1.00 |
| γ5 | 0.4424 | 2.53** |
| γ6 | -0.6901 | -4.45*** |
| γ7 | 0.2666 | 1.20 |
| γ8 | -0.1369 | -0.47 |
| γ9 | 0.5208 | 1.74* |
| γ10 | -1.0373 | -3.00*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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