Top Culture Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
8,579.27
increased by 3,601.40
1 Week
4,710.22
decreased by 267.65
1 Month
3,223.34
decreased by 1,754.53
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2000 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3216 | 4.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1840 | 14.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7747 | 50.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.9373 | -7.27*** |
| γ2 | 1.5189 | 7.67*** |
| γ3 | -0.7713 | -5.90*** |
| γ4 | 0.1891 | 1.99** |
| γ5 | -0.0189 | -0.24 |
| γ6 | 0.1696 | 1.99** |
| γ7 | -0.2519 | -2.64*** |
| γ8 | 0.1235 | 1.24 |
| γ9 | -0.1150 | -0.86 |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
16 days
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