International Carbide Technology Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
5,752.42
decreased by 743.04
1 Week
6,281.85
decreased by 213.61
1 Month
5,367.60
decreased by 1,127.86
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 18, 2014 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 66 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.1606 | 2.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2267 | 6.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7628 | 16.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.9788 | -0.19 |
| γ2 | -10.7100 | -0.80 |
| γ3 | 30.7089 | 1.62 |
| γ4 | -27.4981 | -1.79* |
| γ5 | 9.1326 | 1.76* |
| γ6 | -1.7696 | -0.78 |
| γ7 | 1.7416 | 0.86 |
| γ8 | -0.2531 | -0.17 |
| γ9 | -0.1891 | -0.14 |
| γ10 | -1.6578 | -0.78 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
66 days
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