Hanking Gold International Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
6,868.72
decreased by 686.71
1 Week
7,073.54
decreased by 481.89
1 Month
5,391.40
decreased by 2,164.03
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 2011 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 57762 trading days (~229.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3733 | 0.04 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2076 | 0.02 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7924 | 0.08 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -5.7972 | -0.03 |
| γ2 | 5.4698 | 0.03 |
| γ3 | 2.7986 | 0.93 |
| γ4 | -4.0256 | -0.10 |
| γ5 | 2.9800 | 0.04 |
| γ6 | -8.1346 | -0.03 |
| γ7 | 8.1274 | 0.71 |
| γ8 | 13.8159 | 0.01 |
| γ9 | -29.4002 | -0.02 |
| γ10 | 19.0929 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
57762 days
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