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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

22.17%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Week

22.32%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Month

22.68%

increased by 0.09%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 17, 1995 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow26
αARCH0.0622
4.89***
βGARCH0.8715
32.81***
γleverage-0.0155
-1.23
λ₁tau intercept0.0048
1.75*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0180
3.00***
λ₃tau persistence0.9790
139.14***

0.926

Persistence

9d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0622
4.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8715
32.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0155
-1.23
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0048
1.75*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0180
3.00***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9790
139.14***

Persistence:

0.926

Half-life:

9 days