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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

17.12%

increased by 0.37%

1 Week

17.18%

increased by 0.43%

1 Month

17.41%

increased by 0.66%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:52 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 184 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~184 daysv = 7.39 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.2230
1.34
αARCH0.0544
13.42***
βGARCH0.9962
363.46***
νDF7.3944
2.06**

0.996

Persistence

184d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.2230
1.34
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0544
13.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9962
363.46***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.3944
2.06**

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

184 days