Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

16.84%

increased by 1.01%

1 Week

16.90%

increased by 1.07%

1 Month

17.14%

increased by 1.31%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 179 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~179 daysv = 7.53 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.2256
1.35
αscore0.0552
13.29***
βpersistence0.9961
354.37***
νDF7.5316
1.98**

0.996

Persistence

179d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.2256
1.35
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0552
13.29***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9961
354.37***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.5316
1.98**

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

179 days