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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

118.00%

increased by 36.49%

1 Week

116.70%

increased by 35.19%

1 Month

115.41%

increased by 33.90%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 17, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7494
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0006
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.4046
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0362
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0005

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-