S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, April 3rd, 2026
1 Day
20.03%
increased by 15.45%
1 Week
22,544,573.45%
increased by 22,544,568.87%
1 Month
440,443,458,346,244,500,000,000,000,000,000.00%
increased by 440,443,458,346,244,500,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, April 2, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 41 | ||
| 0.8374 | 8,374,050.00 | |
| 0.0013 | 12,500.00 | |
| 0.3227 | 3,226,890.00 | |
| 1.3181 | 30.62 | |
| 0.0911 | 26.76 | |
| 0.0011 | 0.03 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 17, 1995 to Mar 27, 2026
Jan 17, 1995 to Mar 27, 2026
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