V-Lab
Silex Systems Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
58.21%
decreased by 1.42%
1 Week
61.11%
increased by 1.48%
1 Month
68.75%
increased by 9.12%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 7, 1998 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9397 | 4.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1102 | 5.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8374 | 25.74*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0229 | -1.18 |
| γ2 | 0.0408 | 1.47 |
| γ3 | -0.0275 | -1.71* |
| γ4 | 0.0110 | 1.02 |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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