V-Lab
Silex Systems Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
68.47%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
70.08%
increased by 1.35%
1 Month
74.50%
increased by 5.77%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 06:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 7, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9383 | 4.88*** |
| αARCH | 0.1086 | 5.23*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8388 | 25.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0225 | -1.17 |
| γ2 | 0.0402 | 1.47 |
| γ3 | -0.0270 | -1.70* |
| γ4 | 0.0106 | 1.00 |
0.947
Persistence13d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9383 | 4.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1086 | 5.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8388 | 25.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0225 | -1.17 |
| γ2 | 0.0402 | 1.47 |
| γ3 | -0.0270 | -1.70* |
| γ4 | 0.0106 | 1.00 |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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