V-Lab
Silex Systems Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
66.46%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
67.60%
increased by 1.07%
1 Month
71.04%
increased by 4.51%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 06:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 7, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 17-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0029 | 3.39*** |
| αARCH | 0.1120 | 3.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8566 | 28.08*** |
| γleverage | -0.0156 | -0.42 |
0.961
Persistence17d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0029 | 3.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1120 | 3.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8566 | 28.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0156 | -0.42 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
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