V-Lab
Silex Systems Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
51.56%
decreased by 2.04%
1 Week
53.88%
increased by 0.28%
1 Month
60.28%
increased by 6.68%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 7, 1998 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.94 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 21.6074 | 7.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1063 | 23.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9540 | 142.81*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.9424 | 10.57*** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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