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Silex Systems Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

69.08%

increased by 2.66%

1 Week

69.51%

increased by 3.09%

1 Month

70.77%

increased by 4.35%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 06:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Silex Systems Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 7, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.93 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-lifev = 3.93 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst21.6696
1.74*
αARCH0.1045
5.91***
βGARCH0.9551
36.03***
νDF3.9350
2.63***

0.955

Persistence

15d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

21.6696
1.74*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1045
5.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9551
36.03***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.9350
2.63***

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days