V-Lab
Silex Systems Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
69.08%
increased by 2.66%
1 Week
69.51%
increased by 3.09%
1 Month
70.77%
increased by 4.35%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 06:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 7, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.93 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-lifev = 3.93 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 21.6696 | 1.74* |
| αARCH | 0.1045 | 5.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9551 | 36.03*** |
| νDF | 3.9350 | 2.63*** |
0.955
Persistence15d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 21.6696 | 1.74* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1045 | 5.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9551 | 36.03*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.9350 | 2.63*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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