V-Lab
SDI Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Inactive
Last recorded values (Friday, June 26th, 2026):
1 Day
35.32%
1 Week
37.49%
1 Month
42.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, June 26, 2026 at 06:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 8, 2001 to Jun 19, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7426 | 6.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0755 | 5.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8320 | 23.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.2602 | 4.92*** |
| γ2 | -0.2389 | -3.06*** |
| γ3 | -0.1630 | -2.48** |
| γ4 | 0.2329 | 3.31*** |
| γ5 | -0.1819 | -2.26** |
| γ6 | 0.2119 | 2.04** |
| γ7 | -0.1712 | -1.87* |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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