Pineapple Financial Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
148.55%
increased by 30.45%
1 Week
154.43%
increased by 36.33%
1 Month
174.47%
increased by 56.37%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 10:29 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2023 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 58 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 58 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.95 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 58-day half-lifev = 2.95 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 405.6156 | 1.20 |
| αscore | 0.1996 | 12.40*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9881 | 116.58*** |
| νDF | 2.9536 | 10.44*** |
0.988
Persistence58d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 405.6156 | 1.20 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1996 | 12.40*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9881 | 116.58*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.9536 | 10.44*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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