Palantir Technologies Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, November 4th, 2026
1 Day
50.25%
decreased by 2.25%
1 Week
50.45%
decreased by 2.05%
1 Month
50.56%
decreased by 1.94%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 10:28 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 2020 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3914 | 6.58*** |
| αARCH | 0.0703 | 2.19** |
| βGARCH | 0.4907 | 2.38** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -4.3700 | -2.28** |
| γ2 | 10.1803 | 3.21*** |
| γ3 | -10.0743 | -4.01*** |
| γ4 | 6.6411 | 2.88*** |
| γ5 | -3.6136 | -1.34 |
| γ6 | 1.1761 | 0.31 |
| γ7 | 1.9391 | 0.50 |
| γ8 | -5.5249 | -1.94* |
| γ9 | 7.2956 | 3.15*** |
| γ10 | -5.0006 | -2.76*** |
0.561
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3914 | 6.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0703 | 2.19** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4907 | 2.38** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -4.3700 | -2.28** |
| γ2 | 10.1803 | 3.21*** |
| γ3 | -10.0743 | -4.01*** |
| γ4 | 6.6411 | 2.88*** |
| γ5 | -3.6136 | -1.34 |
| γ6 | 1.1761 | 0.31 |
| γ7 | 1.9391 | 0.50 |
| γ8 | -5.5249 | -1.94* |
| γ9 | 7.2956 | 3.15*** |
| γ10 | -5.0006 | -2.76*** |
Persistence:
0.561
Half-life:
1 days
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