V-Lab
Nordic Semiconductor Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
32.41%
increased by 0.87%
1 Week
32.38%
increased by 0.84%
1 Month
32.32%
increased by 0.78%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 22, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3557 | 7.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1040 | 4.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7233 | 11.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.1047 | -1.89* |
| γ2 | 0.2571 | 2.63*** |
| γ3 | -0.3015 | -3.65*** |
| γ4 | 0.2434 | 3.98*** |
| γ5 | -0.1030 | -1.66* |
| γ6 | 0.0134 | 0.15 |
| γ7 | 0.0259 | 0.24 |
| γ8 | -0.2508 | -1.46 |
Persistence:
0.827
Half-life:
4 days
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