V-Lab
IMV Inc. Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
1,246.40%
decreased by 164.81%
1 Week
1,231.68%
decreased by 179.53%
1 Month
1,214.77%
decreased by 196.44%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 12, 2009 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4522 | 4.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1561 | 4.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6065 | 6.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0355 | -0.04 |
| γ2 | 0.8711 | 0.66 |
| γ3 | -1.5434 | -1.67* |
| γ4 | 1.4986 | 1.44 |
| γ5 | 0.0743 | 0.06 |
| γ6 | -2.8753 | -1.94* |
| γ7 | 2.9833 | 2.33** |
| γ8 | -0.7364 | -0.62 |
| γ9 | 1.8055 | 1.18 |
| γ10 | -4.3337 | -3.79*** |
Persistence:
0.763
Half-life:
3 days
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