V-Lab
IMV Inc. Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026
1 Day
3,405.30%
decreased by 76.04%
1 Week
3,043.92%
decreased by 437.42%
1 Month
2,229.76%
decreased by 1,251.58%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 12, 2009 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5301 | 4.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1207 | 2.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7473 | 6.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 1.0775 | 1.77* |
| γ2 | -1.3130 | -1.40 |
| γ3 | 0.5496 | 0.80 |
| γ4 | 0.3775 | 0.47 |
| γ5 | -1.9454 | -1.67* |
| γ6 | 1.7240 | 1.25 |
| γ7 | 1.3497 | 1.20 |
| γ8 | -3.5471 | -5.35*** |
Persistence:
0.868
Half-life:
5 days
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