V-Lab
Grab Holdings Limited MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
45.36%
1 Week
48.00%
1 Month
56.13%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 1, 2020 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.1300 | 3.42*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8715 | 15.94*** |
| γleverage | -0.1127 | -3.03*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 1.1879 | 2.00** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8915 | 4.55*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.1047 | 0.59 |
0.945
Persistence12d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1300 | 3.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8715 | 15.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1127 | -3.03*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.1879 | 2.00** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8915 | 4.55*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1047 | 0.59 |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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