Grab Holdings Limited Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
35.60%
decreased by 1.50%
1 Week
35.92%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Month
36.68%
decreased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 10:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 1, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3820 | 1.22 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1174 | 3.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8011 | 8.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -13.5356 | -1.52 |
| γ2 | 25.0036 | 2.14** |
| γ3 | -21.6489 | -4.53*** |
| γ4 | 13.9302 | 3.05*** |
| γ5 | -4.8454 | -1.13 |
| γ6 | -0.4494 | -0.12 |
| γ7 | 8.4361 | 2.58** |
| γ8 | -13.3657 | -3.58*** |
| γ9 | 8.7041 | 1.99** |
| γ10 | -2.9729 | -0.56 |
Persistence:
0.919
Half-life:
8 days
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