V-Lab
Gold.com Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
51.28%
decreased by 4.76%
1 Week
50.81%
decreased by 5.23%
1 Month
50.64%
decreased by 5.40%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 17, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1152 | 12.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6349 | 24.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0001 | -0.01 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6115 | 0.36 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2292 | 0.43 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7033 | 0.96 |
Persistence:
0.750
Half-life:
2 days
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