V-Lab
Gold.com Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
55.42%
decreased by 4.98%
1 Week
55.62%
decreased by 4.78%
1 Month
55.86%
decreased by 4.54%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 17, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7033 | 5.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1324 | 4.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6332 | 8.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0515 | 0.35 |
| γ2 | -0.1126 | -0.52 |
| γ3 | 0.2185 | 1.49 |
| γ4 | -0.4377 | -3.37*** |
| γ5 | 0.4975 | 3.73*** |
| γ6 | -0.2952 | -3.10*** |
Persistence:
0.766
Half-life:
3 days
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