V-Lab
Estee Lauder Cos Inc/The MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 27th, 2026
1 Day
45.69%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Week
47.46%
increased by 0.77%
1 Month
51.06%
increased by 4.37%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 10:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0101 | 6.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8197 | 136.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1394 | 24.46*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0045 | 0.62 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0136 | 2.47** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9859 | 158.40*** |
Persistence:
0.900
Half-life:
7 days
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