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V-Lab

Estee Lauder Cos Inc/The MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 27th, 2026

1 Day

45.69%

decreased by 1.00%

1 Week

47.46%

increased by 0.77%

1 Month

51.06%

increased by 4.37%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 10:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Estee Lauder Cos Inc/The MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 17, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0101
6.25***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8197
136.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1394
24.46***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0045
0.62
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0136
2.47**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9859
158.40***

Persistence:

0.900

Half-life:

7 days